Analysis Of Fractional Logistic Model Solution And Its Simulation On Human Development Index Data Of Cilacap District

Abstract

This research discusses the formation of the Fractional Logistic model and its solution analysis, as well as its simulation to predict the Human Development Index in Cilacap Regency using the Fractional Logistic growth model. This study uses secondary data obtained from the official website of the Central Statistics Agency of Cilacap Regency. Based on these data, the growth of the Human Development Index in Cilacap Regency has increased relatively. This shows the Cilacap community's good quality of life. Based on the environmental carrying capacity value of 73, a relative growth rate per year of 0.14273269 is obtained. This model predicts the Human Development Index in Cilacap Regency in 2024 and 2025. The prediction results for 2024 of 71.47 and 2025 of 71.67 are achieved when the fractional derivative order is one. The best approximate solution is obtained when the fractional derivative order is 1, 0.95 0.90, 0.85, 0.80 and 0.75.